Economics and Economic Indicators
Berkeley Electronic Press B.E. Journal in Macroeconomics (On Order - Coming in January 2008) B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics (On Order - Coming in January 2008)
Global Market Information Database (Euromonitor)
At this time, there are more than 200,000 time series for which data and custom charts can be retrieved. Though the greatest utility of this site is the vast number of economic time series, and the easily modified charts of that same data, an overlooked facility of great utility is the availability of Excel files for all series. The majority of the data is USA data. The core data sets involve US macroeconomic data (that is, for the whole US), but the bulk of the data is employment data by local area -- state, county, MSA, and many cities and towns.
California Economic Data The Outlook for the California Economy The UCLA Anderson forecast for the nation and California California Statistical Abstract California Economic Growth California County Projections San Luis Obispo County Economic Outlook (Annual)
Regional Newspapers Los Angeles Business Journal
The LABJ Stock Index -The index includes stock indices for two hundred Los Angeles County based companies, along with industry sector indices, an index performance chart, and a company profile section.
Economic Indicators Economic indicators are the life blood of the interest rate forecasting business. Most long term interest rate forecasts are based on what most investors and the Federal Reserve think the future inflation rate will be. Inflation rates are, to some extent, determined by the speed the economy grows and the bottlenecks that develop due to that rate of expansion. The indicators defined below in various ways help to establish or predict the rate of economic expansion. The general rule that most economists operate under is "low inflation, slow growth, low consumer confidence usually drive interest rates down and visa-versa. Common economic indicators include: Beige Book, twice per quarter, Federal Reserve-A survey of economic conditions conducted by the Federal Reserve's 12 regional banks in preparation for the Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Civilian Employment, monthly, Labor Department-Reports the number of new civilian jobs Non-farm payroll created and the percentage of civilians in the job market who are unemployed. This is one of the most closely watched economic indicators (more jobs created indicates a faster growing economy). Construction Spending, monthly, Commerce Department-Measures the total amount of spending in the U.S. on all types of construction. The residential construction component is useful for predicting future national new home sales and mortgage volume. Consumer Confidence, monthly, Conference Board-A monthly survey of 5,000 households designed to measure Americans opinion about their current financial situation and future. Consumer Credit, monthly, Federal Reserve-Measure the level of outstanding consumer debt. Can be used in conjunction with retail sales to determine whether growth is being fueled by cash or credit. Consumer Price Index (CPI), monthly, Labor Department-Measures the change in the cost of living for most American families. Widely followed as an indicator of inflation on retail purchases. Consumer Sentiment, semimonthly, University of Michigan-An index designed to measure consumer optimism. Includes a preliminary report at mid-month and a final report near month-end. Durable Goods Orders, monthly, Commerce Department-Measures new orders placed with domestic manufactures for items considered useful for at least three years (such as vehicles, appliances, and computers). In addition to gauging the strength of the manufacturing sector, it can also be used to assess consumer sentiment. Existing Home Sales, monthly, National Association of Realtors-Reports the number of existing hones sold, expressed on a annual basis. Can be combined with New Home Sales (see below) to determine the total volume of home sales, a strong predictor of future mortgage loan volume. Factory Orders, monthly, Commerce Department-Measures the total volume of orders placed with U.S. factories. Also includes inventory and order backlog components, which can offer insights into inflation and growth in the manufacturing sectors. Federal Reserve Meeting, twice per quarter, Federal Open Market Committee-Sets U.S. monetary and short-term interest rate policy. Changes in policy directly affect adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) rates and influence long term interest rates. Gross Domestic Policy, quarterly, Commerce Department-Widely followed as the most comprehensive measure of the nation's total economic output. It is a measure of all final goods and services produced within the U.S. also included an inflation component. Housing Starts, monthly, Commerce Department-Measures the number of residential homes on which construction is begun during each month. May be used as an indicator of future national new home sales and mortgage volume. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization, monthly, Federal Reserve-Measures output of U.S. factories, mines, and utilities. Utilization of more than 85% of capacity is considered to indicate future inflation. Index of Leading Indicators, monthly, Conference Board-An index a eleven indicators designed to forecast the strength of the economy six to nine months into the future. ISM, monthly, Institute For Supply Management-A reading above 50% generally indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding, and below 50% signifies contraction. The price-paid index gives insight into inflation in the manufacturing sector. New Home Sales, monthly, Commerce Department-Reports the number of new single-family homes sold, expressed on an annual basis. Can be combined with Existing Home Sales (see above) to determine the total volume of homes sales. Personal Income, monthly, Commerce Department-Measures the total income of all Americans from all sources, and is reported both before and after taxes. Also reports personal spending and personal savings. The level of personal spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. Producer Price Index (PPI), monthly, Labor Department-A price index of goods (such as oil, steel, and grain) sold at the wholesale level to businesses. In most cases, inflation changes in the PPI tend to precede changes in the CPI. Productivity quarterly, Labor Department-Measures the output per hour of work for nonfarm business production. Can be used in conjunction with the rate of change in the GDP to determine whether economic growth is likely to be inflationary. A separate component measures unit labor costs, an important indicator of future inflation. Retail Sales, monthly, Commerce Department-Measures total net sales of retail stores and may be used as an indicator of consumer spending. 10 Year Treasury Note Auction, quarterly, Treasury Department-An auction of United States Treasury notes that mature in ten years. The interest rate paid on Treasury notes has a direct influence on fixed-rate mortgage rates because investors will compare the yields between 10 year notes and mortgage backed securities. 30 Year Treasury Bond Auctions, semiannually, Treasury Department-An auction of United States Treasury bonds that mature in 30 years. The interest rate paid on Treasury bonds has a direct influence on fixed-rate mortgage rates. Related Online Resources National Bureau of Economic Research Economic Statistics Briefing Room Liber8 - An Economic Information Portal For Librarians and Students (Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis) Statistical Resources on the Web (University of Michigan)
White House Reports Kennedy Library Journal Subscriptions The library subscribes to more than 50 economics journals -- search PolyCAT to find a journal. Select the Subject tab and type economics--periodicals
Government Information and Data
Frank
Vuotto, M.A., M.L.I.S.
Last updated September 21, 2007 © Copyright by Frank Vuotto 2003 |